Strength of Schedule and Efficiency

Here are the current Efficiency Margin numbers, with a new twist thanks to dukemayo of the Devil's Den message board: We've multiplied efficiency margin by strength of schedule, as calculated by Jerry Palm. This should eliminate some of the bias from weak schedules.

Team	ORtg	DRtg	EM	SOS-EM
Duke	120	70	49	30.7
LSU	109	69	40	27.8
UNC	112	70	42	25.1
UConn	109	77	32	20.8
Tennessee	114	85	29	19.8
Ohio St	105	74	31	18.8
Maryland	111	78	32	18.4
Georgia	112	87	24	14.1
DePaul	106	82	24	13.5
Baylor	102	80	22	12.8
Rutgers	102	81	21	12.4
Stanford	108	86	21	12.4
Boston College	98	77	21	12.3
Vanderbilt	104	83	21	12.3
Utah	104	82	22	12.0
BYU	96	74	21	12.0
Purdue	97	78	18	11.4
Louisville	105	87	18	10.4
Oklahoma	105	90	15	9.9
Arizona St	98	84	15	9.0
NCSU	96	83	12	8.9
Michigan St	100	88	13	8.4
George Washington	89	76	12	7.6
Miami	98	86	13	7.3
Virginia Tech	95	85	11	7.1

Duke 75, Tenn 53

Wow!

I still haven't recovered from the game last night (literally, since my knee is swollen up like a balloon from standing in the bleachers the whole game...), however, here are some statistical nuggets:

Duke forced UT into a 34% turnover/possession rate and grabbed 50% of the offensive rebounds (the defensive player traditionally has an advantage rebounding, so anything over 40% is great). They also grabbed 56% of the rebounds overall. Duke shot 64% in the second half and 54% overall versus the Vols' 45%.

Tennessee shot an abysmal 20% from the free throw line, a testament to the Cameron Crazies. UT only had 10 assists to Duke's 19, and Duke assisted on 63% of their baskets, with an Expected Assist Differential of 10%. (Basically you assume 80% of threes and 47% of twos will be assisted on, and then anything over that is the EAD.)

At 65 possessions, the pace of last night's game was a little slow for Duke, who is averaging 76 per game. The Lady Vols seemed to take a lot of time on their end of the floor - when they weren't being turned over, that is. Duke ended with an O-Rating of 115 and a D-Rating of 81, both excellent against such a high-ranked opponent.

top 20 Efficiency Margins

As covered before, points scored or allowed per game doesn't take into account the tempo or the style of a team. A team that has a strong defensive presence such as Rutgers or NC State might not score a ton of points, but they still manage to win by holding down their opponents scoring, and usually controlling the pace of the game as well. Efficiency Margin was thought up by Ryan Kobliska, and is simply the difference between a team's Offensive and Defensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions versus points allowed per 100 possessions).

Note: Obviously, strength of schedule has an impact on these numbers, and had I but world enough and time, I would compute them for conference schedule alone. Perhaps closer to the tourney...

Team		ORtg	DRtg	EM
Duke		119	69	50
UNC		113	70	43
LSU		109	67	42
Maryland		112	77	35
Tennessee		116	83	33
Ohio St		105	72	33
UConn		109	77	31
Georgia		113	87	26
DePaul		106	82	24
Baylor		102	80	22
Utah		104	82	22
Stanford		108	86	21
Rutgers		101	82	20
Boston College		105	85	19
Purdue		97	78	19
Louisville		105	87	18
Arizona St		99	84	15
Oklahoma		100	90	15
Miami		96	85	14
Michigan St		100	87	14

Overall game ratings to date

After an interesting discussion over at the Devil's Den about offensive and defensive ratings, I thought I'd post Duke's numbers to date. As a reminder, these ratings are simply points scored or allowed per 100 possessions. Pace refers to the number of possessions per 200 minutes (to compensate for any overtime games). Since Duke has not yet gone into overtime, pace in this table is the same as possessions per game.

Game		ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Penn State		119	86	78.2
ODU		112	68	82.9
Fairfield		132	53	83.0
Arkansas St.		137	70	80.2
Auburn		106	57	64.9
Texas		102	85	82.5
TCU		113	64	81.7
Ball St		137	30	80.2
Colorado		132	69	75.0
St. John's		139	73	75.8
San Diego		152	67	78.1
Wake Forest		124	67	80.7
Florida St		108	85	80.4
Maryland		114	90	75.3
Georgia Tech		95	84	70.2
Boston College		98	77	67.5
Holy Cross		114	49	73.5
NC State		102	75	75.6
Average		119	69	77.0

Notice that in some of the games in which Duke struggled offensively, the pace was slower. You often hear analysts say "They're forcing them to play at their pace." Of the three games in which the pace was significantly slower (5 or more possessions slower), Duke had an ORtg of 106, 95, and 98. The two other games with lower ORtgs were against Texas and NC State, both good defensive teams.

Record Watch

Mo is now in third place for career points with 1793, but she'll need to pick up the pace if she wants to pass Chris Moreland for second place. She would need to score around 23 or 24 points per game from here on out to make it past 2232, and she's currently averaging 15.3. She is now #25 in the ACC, and needs only 3 more points to pass Jacquel Knight for #24.

Mistie is only 106 points back of Payton Black at #10, so she should finish in the top ten easily.

Mo is fifth in rebounding and needs 20 to overtake Alana for fourth, while Mistie needs 11 to take over tenth place from Sarah Sullivan.

Mo and Lindsey are numbers 6 and 7 on the assists list at 371 and 358. Katie Meier has 409 at number 5. Since Lindsey has another year of eligibility she should be able to take over the number one spot from Hilary Howard with 533...

Monique's 269 is one steal away from Iciss at number two, but there's no way she catches Alana's 404.

Alison only needs 3 blocks to take the all time block record from Sarah Sullivan (in only three years, too!) Mistie, #6, Chante, #8, and Mo, #10, are all also on the top ten list in blocks. At 209, Al is tied with Brooke Wyckoff of FSU for sixth place on the ACC career blocks list. DeMya Walker is currently first with 330.