Duke-ODU, 93-56

There were a lot of similarities between this and Friday's game at Penn St.: both games the Devils scored 93 points, with 4 players in double figures, each time Duke failed to significantly out-rebound their opponent, especially on the offensive boards, and in each game Duke shot well, especially from three: .421 in this game and .429 Friday. One significant difference was in the refereeing; as Shannon Perry said afterwards, this game was called more like an ACC game, with more contact allowed.

Duke had 28 assists which translates to a 78% assisted basket rate! They shot .529 from the field in a slightly faster-paced game: 83 possessions with an offensive rating of 112. The Devils did a better job defensively, only allowing a defensive rating of 68 for ODU who shot 34% overall.

Abby Waner again led the way with 17 points on 7-9 shooting. Lindsey had 16 points with 2 assists, and Mo had 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. Chante Black had 7 boards, 5 points, and 4 blocks while Wanisha offered up 11 assists.

Duke over Penn State, 93-67

Duke defeated Penn State 93-67 Friday night at Happy Valley. (If that's not an ironic nickname, I don't know what is.) The score was closer than expected, due in large part to very tight refereeing: Duke committed 30 fouls and sent the Lions to the line 42 times (they made 31 of those free throws). And Duke's rebounding was not at it's best: Overall they pulled down 51% of the rebounds, but only got 33% of the offensive boards (the "goal" for this is 40%) and 63% defensive (should be 67% on a good day).

All that being said, they did win by 26 points behind 57% shooting, 43% from three, and an amazing 71% of their shots were assisted on. They held PSU to 31% shooting and forced 20 turnovers; that's 26% of the possessions. There were 78 possessions in the game and Duke managed an offensive rating of 119 while holding the Lions to an 86 rating. Duke's effective FG% was .623. Over half their points came in the paint.

It was a very balanced scoring effort, with all 11 active players scoring and four in double figures: Abby 15, Al 15, Mo 12, and Lindsey 10. Alison and Mistie led the way rebounding with 9 each, Abby added 6 steals and 6 assists to have a great line for her first game as a Blue Devil and a starter. Chante also got the start over Al, but had to sit early on with two quick fouls that limited her time on the floor. She also had a great line considering: 4-5 shooting, 5 rebounds, an assist and 2 blocks in only 14 minutes.

Duke Annihilates Lander

Well, at about 28-2 I was cringing for Lander University, and when they finally made their second basket of the night at around the 3 minute mark I cheered for them... My partner suggested that maybe we should have a mercy rule (like in little kids' soccer) where the team leading by such a wide margin has to play a man down until they start catching up. The final score was 116-29...

Due to the overwhelming mismatch in talent and ability, I'm not sure there's anything to derive from the box score. I crunched the numbers anyway, though, so here goes: A whopping 74% of Duke's baskets were assisted on, they grabbed 58% of the offensive rebounds and 88% on the defensive end while rebounding 81% of their misses. Duke was opportunistic, scoring on 79% of Lander's turnovers while forcing them into a 39% turnover rate (for a total of 31 turnovers, 17 of which were steals).

Despite what seemed like fast-break opportunities galore, this was actually a slower paced game than last weeks at an estimated 79 possessions apiece. (For comparison, last year's Blue Devils averaged 72 possessions per game.) This makes the final score that much more amazing, though, with a truly staggering offensive rating of 146 compared to a defensive rating of 37, giving an efficiency margin of 109! One factor that may have lowered the number of possessions might be that in the second half, Coach G asked the team to work on their half- and quarter court play, resulting in fewer possessions. I hear she also wanted them to work on setting screens, with a goal of three good screens per player.

Individually, Abby Waner had the most exciting stat line with 15 points, 7 assists, 8 steals, and 5 rebounds. She made several layups on run-outs (left- and right-handed) and showed off some beautiful no-look passing. Al led the team in scoring with 19 points on 8-10 shooting and was credited with 3 blocks. Mistie ended up with 14 and 4 blocks, including a monster one complete with sound effects. Mo actually led the team in rebounding with 9 and added 11 points and 5 assists.

My only concern for the team right now is that they are so above their current level of competition they are not getting to work on any weaknesses. This does not look likely to change anytime soon, with a depleted Penn St, ODU, and Fairfield as the first three games...

Regardless, the season is almost upon us, finally!

Fall Stat Primer - team stats

Most of the statistical analysis I do for the women is based on the work of well-known stat-heads such as Dean Oliver (of Basketball On Paper fame), Ken Pomeroy, John Gasaway (aka the Big Ten Wonk), and Ryan Kobliska of Hawkeye Hoops.

Most of what I try to get at with statistics is what the Wonk calls "tempo-free stats". If you have one team averaging 90 points a game and another averaging 75, you can't simply say that the first is a better team. They may well be, but it's just as likely that they are a faster team; in other words, points per game is dependent upon possessions.

A more accurate comparison would involve comparing points per possession: Team A scores 1.0 point per possession, while Team B scores 1.25 PPP, but plays a much slower-paced game. (These numbers are also known as offensive efficiency or rating and are often multiplied by 100 to get a nice round number.) In the same vein, defense can be measured by points allowed per possession (defensive rating or efficiency). The difference between these numbers is called efficiency margin (props to Ryan Kobliska.)

Floor percentage, popularized by Dean Oliver, also measures offensive efficiency. Basically it's baskets and offensive rebounds as a ratio of attempted baskets plus turnovers. In other words, when there is a chance to turn the ball over (TOs and FGA), how often does your team profit from it? (Of course, the two ways to "profit" are to make a basket, or get another chance with a rebound.)

Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) accounts for 3-point shots by giving them more weight. (Shooting percentages drop the further the shooter is from the basket, but of course threes are worth more. This adjustment evens this out a little: So Vickie Krapohl gets credit on her shooting percentage for all the difficult threes she took.)

Another example of tempo-free stats involves rebounding: Rebounds are dependent on missed shots, so if Team A misses a lot of baskets there will be more defensive rebounds available for them to retrieve (and of course, more offensive rebounds for Team B). So I calculate an offensive and a defensive rebounding percentage as well as percentage of total rebounds. Anything over 40% OR or 67% DR is good (because it's easier to get defensive rebound...)

Rather than simply number of assists, I use assisted basket ratio (what percentage of baskets were assisted on), and assist-turnover ratio as well. Possession based stats are extremely useful for turnovers: TO% is basically turnovers per possession. In the women's game 20% is a benchmark (higher than for the men).

When I can I also track second-chance point percentage (basically what percentage of missed shots end up being scores) and also points off turnover percentages (as a percentage of opponent's TOs). Sadly, these stats aren't always published in box scores.

Lastly I keep track of free throw productivity: how well a team gets to the line and what they do once there.

Formulas:

To calculate possessions:
(FGA -OR + TOs + (0.475 x FTAs)) for each team, then averaged together
note: I am now using .475 as the free throw multiplier as per Ken Pomeroy. His numbers are based on men's college numbers, so this number may still need to be revised upward. The NBA multiplier is somewhere between .4 and .44...

Offensive Rating:
ORtg = Pts / Poss. x 100
DRtg = Pts allowed /Poss x 100
EM (Efficiency Margin) = Ortg - Drtg

Floor %:
(FGM + OR) / (FGA + TOs)

Effective field goal percentage:
eFG% = (FGM + (.5 x 3FGM)) / FGA

Rebounding %:
OR% = OR / (OR + opp.DR)
DR% = DR / (DR + opp.DR)
TR% = TR / (TR + opp. TR)

Assists:
AB% (Assisted Basket Ratio) = Assists/FGM
A-TO rate = Assists/Turnovers

Turnover Rate:
TO% - TOs /Possessions

Free throw Production:
FTP = FTM / FGA

Individual stats will receive their own post once a few games have been played. (A small voice at the back pipes up, "There's more?")

Duke beats EA Sports, 118-73

Okay, I know it was a preseason game against EA Sports, but I was a happy camper last night! The teamwork, the finishing, the overall intensity, and the joy of the Duke team were all a welcome sight. There was one play that began with a breakdown on EA Sports' end, and ended with a fast break with about four or five crisp passes and then an Abby Waner lay-up. It was in fact, a thing of beauty and a joy forever.

And did I mention the balanced scoring? Six players in double figures, everyone who played scored, and everyone had around 20 minutes apiece. All this without Mo Currie or Jess even playing! (Also missing was Keturah Jackson, who did at least warm-up some.)

Statistically, positives included FT percentages at 82%, assisted basket percentage at 76%, forced turnovers at 34, and rebounding. Duke collected 51% of the offensive reboounds available, and 74% of the defensive rebounds. Negatives were 3-pt shooting at 23% and turnovers at 21, although the assist-turnover ratio was a respectable 1.67.

This was an extremely fast-paced game, especially compared to last season. (It felt like we didn't see a fast-break all last year!) Last year Duke averaged around 75 possessions a game, and against EA Sports last year had 81 possessions, whereas last night's game worked out at 99 possessions.

Despite the fast pace, Coach G did stick with her game plan of working through the posts, with Mistie, Ali, Chante, Carrem, and Laura accounting for 65% of the scoring.

Individual highlights: Lindsay was the only non-post to break double-figures with 12 points on 6-7 shooting. Chante got her usual double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds, and Ali had some great moves under the basket to get 16 points to go with her 7 blocks. Mistie almost had a double-double with 18 and 9 and was the leading scorer. A big surprise was Brittany Mitch's 10 assists to lead the team.

Abby started out slow, with I think some freshman starter jitters, but ended with 9 pts and 5 assists, and got some major style points on her passing. Carrem Gay was silky smooth, and took the free-throw award with 7-8 shooting. (BTW, I really enjoyed watching Chante and Carrem on the floor together. They complement each other well.) Emily started even slower than her sister but finally hit 2 threes late in the second. Laura Kurz shot 5-7 for 13 points.

(It was a long off-season, can you tell?)

Preseason begins tonight!

Well, I really am back now. I've had to have pretty major surgery on my left knee that's kept me off my feet, and more importantly away from my computer for going on four weeks. (Two more weeks until I can bend my knee again!)

Duke's first preseason game is tonight, against EA sports. They will be a little short-handed, with Mo nursing a slightly sprained thumb and sore foot, Jess being careful of a turned ankle, and freshman Keturah Jackson still sore from an ankle sprain from a couple of weeks ago.

I'll be there in my lovely wheelchair to catch all the action...

Rob at DBR has done his usual amazing analysis of the team. Definitely a must read. He also broke down last week's open practice with his usual flair.

In other news, I must admit to be completely thrilled with Sheryl Swoopes' coming out party. She is a class act, and makes me proud to be a lesbian. Ted over at womenshoops has the complete rundown on that, as well as the story on the Penn State/Rene Portland mess. I'm thinking about heading up to PA (in the wheelchair, no less) for the Duke opener sporting a Swoopes jersey and a Duke hat... Maybe I could wave a rainbow flag?